Alla vigilia del Decreto con le nuove misure restrittive propongo alcuni appunti per farsi una idea dello scopo di queste misure e come potrebbero essere prese in modo da mitigare l'impatto sulla economia.
Come sottolineato dalla Presidente Von der Leyen rispetto ad aprile siamo tutti più informati, abbiamo dati e casistiche condivisi a livello europeo, e quindi è possibile gestire questa seconda ondata in modo più efficace e meno dannoso per l'economia.
Diciamolo chiaramente: un -18,7% di PIL (poi ridotto a -4,7% nel 3^ trimestre) non possiamo permettercelo. E non possiamo nemmeno permetterci un incremento del tasso di mortalità del 300% come è accaduto a Nembro ed altri comuni bergamaschi, con un crash del sistema sanitario. Imparare dal passato non è una facoltà ma un obbligo.
Formule politiche e necessità pratiche
Proporzionalità e coerenza sono due parole che piacciono ai politici, ma che in questo caso costituiscono un pessimo approccio al problema: gli effetti della pandemia in fase di crescita sono infatti esponenziali, come potete vedere consultando le curve di ISS e ECDC o, per tirarcela un poco, i datatools che ho illustrato nell'articolo Covid - combattere l'infodemia.
Coerenza? beh, se hai ottenuto un -18% al PIL e un +300% di decessi nelle zone colpite la coerenza è un atto criminale.
Speriamo quindi in misure sproporzionate e incoerenti.
Perché vengono adottate misure di contenimento?
Le misure di contenimento sono un second (o third best). Vengono adottate perché la soluzione ottimale (vaccino) non è in vista, e perché la soluzione subottimale (potenziamento sistema sanitario) è lontana dall'essere adeguata alla domanda di servizi sanitari che epidemia+ normale operatività richiedono. Come penso abbiano compreso tutti tranne i subnormali il COVID ha in primis un impatto logistico di intasamento del sistema sanitario che rende non erogabili nemmeno le prestazioni ordinarie.
Quindi, se le altre azioni ad ora non hanno sortito effetti, non resta che diminuire il potenziale "step-in" nelle strutture sanitarie.
Come ogni infezione le misure di prevenzione sono semplici: meno contatti interpersonali, utilizzo di strumenti di protezione, igiene.
Ovvio che, usciti dalla fase 1, ogni misura deve essere modulata per avere meno effetti collaterali. Tranne pochissimi, in questa situazione c'è solo da perderci, bisogna scegliere il male minore.
Conte lo sentite fino alla noia. vi propongo la Ursula (PS: anche in versioni multilingua sul sito EC). Estratto minuto 4'50'' - 5'26'' conferenza stampa del 28 ottobre
Cosa si fa nel resto d'Europa?
ECDC pubblica un database delle misure prese in Europa, misure che hanno molteplici graduazioni, da implementazioni parziali a totali, da raccomandazioni semplici a divieti, a limiti quantitativi (es limite per riunioni di persone).
Breve guida. una misura può essere obbligatoria (mandatory) o raccomandata, Partial o totale. Stayhome (gli arresti domiciliari che abbiamo sperimentato in primavera) può essere un ordine Order o una raccomandazione (Rec) e così via.
Per un panorama completo potete scaricare il file con il collegamento al dataset di ECDC. Per una panoramica spot con i dati disponibili oggi, ho riarrangiato il DB delle misure in vigore in Europa (le traduzioni ve le fate da soli)
MeasureShort | Last activation | MeasureLong |
Austria | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 14/04/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatory | 14/09/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAll | 21/09/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
TeleworkingClosures | 10/03/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
Belgium | ||
ClosHigh | 13/03/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: higher education. |
ClosPubAnyPartial | 04/05/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatory | 04/05/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAll | 10/03/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
TeleworkingClosures | 19/10/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
Bulgaria | ||
ClosHighPartial | 01/06/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: higher education – partially relaxed measure |
ClosPrim | 13/03/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: primary schools. |
ClosPubAnyPartial | 18/05/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
ClosSec | 13/03/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: secondary schools. |
MasksMandatoryPartial | 15/06/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure |
StayHomeRiskG | 17/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
TeleworkingClosures | 13/03/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
Croatia | ||
ClosHigh | 16/03/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: higher education. |
ClosSec | 16/03/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: secondary schools. |
MasksMandatoryPartial | 25/06/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure |
MassGatherAll | 19/03/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
StayHomeRiskG | 03/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
Cyprus | ||
MasksMandatory | 04/05/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAll | 10/03/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
Czechia | ||
ClosHigh | 14/10/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: higher education. |
ClosPrim | 14/10/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: primary schools. |
ClosPubAnyPartial | 22/10/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
ClosSec | 14/10/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: secondary schools. |
MasksMandatory | 25/07/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAll | 04/03/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
StayHomeOrder | 22/10/2020 | Stay-at-home orders for the general population (these are enforced and also referred to as ‘lockdown’) |
TeleworkingClosures | 22/10/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
Denmark | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 21/04/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatory | 22/08/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAllPartial | 15/06/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
StayHomeRiskG | 14/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
TeleworkingClosuresPartial | 15/06/2020 | Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure |
Estonia | ||
MasksVoluntaryPartial | 12/10/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on voluntary basis (general recommendation not enforced) – partially relaxed measure |
MassGatherAll | 15/07/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
TeleworkingClosuresPartial | 16/03/2020 | Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure |
Finland | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 01/06/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksVoluntary | 18/09/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on voluntary basis (general recommendation not enforced) |
MassGather50Partial | 15/10/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 50 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
MassGatherAllPartial | 01/07/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
StayHomeRiskGPartial | 23/06/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) – partially relaxed measure |
TeleworkingClosuresPartial | 13/08/2020 | Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure |
France | ||
MasksMandatory | 18/05/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAll | 19/10/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
TeleworkingClosuresPartial | 11/05/2020 | Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure |
Germany | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 05/05/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatoryPartial | 27/04/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure |
MassGather50Partial | 29/09/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 50 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
MassGatherAllPartial | 11/05/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
Greece | ||
ClosHighPartial | 25/05/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: higher education – partially relaxed measure |
ClosPubAnyPartial | 04/05/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatory | 28/04/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAll | 09/08/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
StayHomeRiskG | 11/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
TeleworkingClosures | 19/03/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
Hungary | ||
ClosPubAny | 21/09/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers, etc). |
MasksMandatory | 04/05/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAllPartial | 21/09/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
Iceland | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 31/08/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksVoluntaryPartial | 31/07/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on voluntary basis (general recommendation not enforced) – partially relaxed measure |
MassGatherAllPartial | 25/05/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
StayHomeRiskG | 16/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
Ireland | ||
ClosHigh | 12/03/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: higher education. |
ClosPubAnyPartial | 06/10/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatory | 29/06/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAll | 12/03/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
StayHomeOrder | 21/10/2020 | Stay-at-home orders for the general population (these are enforced and also referred to as ‘lockdown’) |
StayHomeRiskG | 12/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
TeleworkingClosuresPartial | 08/06/2020 | Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure |
Italy | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 10/03/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatory | 16/08/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAllPartial | 12/06/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
StayHomeGen | 26/10/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for the general population (which are voluntary or not enforced) |
StayHomeRiskG | 04/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
TeleworkingClosures | 12/03/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
Latvia | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 11/07/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatory | 07/10/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAll | 01/08/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
TeleworkingClosures | 17/03/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
Liechtenstein | ||
MasksMandatoryPartial | 06/07/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure |
MassGatherAll | 19/10/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
StayHomeRiskG | 16/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
Lithuania | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 16/03/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatoryPartial | 01/08/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure |
TeleworkingClosuresPartial | 16/06/2020 | Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure |
Luxembourg | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 16/03/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatoryPartial | 20/04/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure |
MassGather50Partial | 11/05/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 50 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
MassGatherAllPartial | 16/03/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
StayHomeRiskG | 12/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
TeleworkingClosures | 13/03/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
Malta | ||
ClosDaycare | 13/03/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: daycare or nursery. |
ClosPubAnyPartial | 22/05/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatory | 22/05/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAll | 13/03/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
StayHomeRiskG | 28/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
TeleworkingClosures | 08/05/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
Netherlands | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 12/03/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatory | 01/06/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGather50Partial | 29/09/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 50 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
MassGatherAllPartial | 01/07/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
TeleworkingClosures | 12/03/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
Norway | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 12/03/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatoryPartial | 14/08/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure |
MassGatherAllPartial | 15/06/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
TeleworkingClosures | 10/03/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
Poland | ||
ClosPubAny | 17/10/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers, etc). |
MasksMandatoryPartial | 30/05/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure |
StayHomeRiskG | 08/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
TeleworkingClosures | 08/03/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
Portugal | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 18/03/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatory | 04/05/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAll | 15/03/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
StayHomeRiskG | 18/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
TeleworkingClosuresPartial | 01/06/2020 | Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure |
Romania | ||
ClosHighPartial | 31/08/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: higher education – partially relaxed measure |
ClosPubAnyPartial | 14/05/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatoryPartial | 01/08/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure |
MassGatherAllPartial | 31/05/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure |
TeleworkingClosuresPartial | 15/05/2020 | Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure |
Slovakia | ||
ClosHighPartial | 10/06/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: higher education – partially relaxed measure |
ClosPubAny | 01/10/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers, etc). |
ClosSec | 12/10/2020 | Closure of educational institutions: secondary schools. |
MasksMandatory | 01/07/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAll | 01/09/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
Slovenia | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 29/04/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatory | 25/06/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
TeleworkingClosures | 04/03/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
Spain | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 04/05/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatory | 04/05/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
StayHomeRiskG | 12/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
TeleworkingClosuresPartial | 13/04/2020 | Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure |
Sweden | ||
ClosPubAny | 01/07/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers, etc). |
MassGatherAll | 12/03/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
StayHomeGen | 10/03/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for the general population (which are voluntary or not enforced) |
StayHomeRiskG | 01/04/2020 | Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) |
TeleworkingClosures | 16/03/2020 | Teleworking recommendation |
United Kingdom | ||
ClosPubAnyPartial | 31/03/2020 | Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure |
MasksMandatory | 27/07/2020 | Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) |
MassGatherAll | 24/03/2020 | Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) |
TeleworkingClosuresPartial | 10/05/2020 | Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure |