Lockdown ma non solo (aspettando il sermone di Conte)

Alla vigilia del Decreto con le nuove misure restrittive propongo alcuni appunti per farsi una idea dello scopo di queste misure e come potrebbero essere prese in modo da mitigare l'impatto sulla economia.

Come sottolineato dalla Presidente Von der Leyen rispetto ad aprile siamo tutti più informati, abbiamo dati e casistiche condivisi a livello europeo, e quindi è possibile gestire questa seconda ondata in modo più efficace e meno dannoso per l'economia.

Diciamolo chiaramente: un -18,7% di PIL (poi ridotto a -4,7% nel 3^ trimestre) non possiamo permettercelo. E non possiamo nemmeno permetterci un incremento del tasso di mortalità del 300% come è accaduto a Nembro ed altri comuni bergamaschi, con un crash del sistema sanitario. Imparare dal passato non è una facoltà ma un obbligo.

Formule politiche e necessità pratiche

Proporzionalità e coerenza sono due parole che piacciono ai politici, ma che in questo caso costituiscono un pessimo approccio al problema: gli effetti della pandemia in fase di crescita sono infatti esponenziali, come potete vedere consultando le curve di ISS e ECDC o, per tirarcela un poco, i datatools che ho illustrato nell'articolo Covid - combattere l'infodemia.

Coerenza? beh, se hai ottenuto un -18% al PIL e un +300% di decessi nelle zone colpite la coerenza è un atto criminale.

Speriamo quindi in misure sproporzionate e incoerenti. 

Perché vengono adottate misure di contenimento?

Le misure di contenimento sono un second (o third best). Vengono adottate perché la soluzione ottimale (vaccino) non è in vista, e perché la soluzione subottimale (potenziamento sistema sanitario) è lontana dall'essere adeguata alla domanda di servizi sanitari che epidemia+ normale operatività richiedono. Come penso abbiano compreso tutti tranne i subnormali il COVID ha in primis un impatto logistico di intasamento del sistema sanitario che rende non erogabili nemmeno le prestazioni ordinarie.

Quindi, se le altre azioni ad ora non hanno sortito effetti, non resta che diminuire il potenziale "step-in" nelle strutture sanitarie.

Come ogni infezione le misure di prevenzione sono semplici: meno contatti interpersonali, utilizzo di strumenti di protezione, igiene.

Ovvio che, usciti dalla fase 1, ogni misura deve essere modulata per avere meno effetti collaterali. Tranne pochissimi, in questa situazione c'è solo da perderci, bisogna scegliere il male minore. 

Conte lo sentite fino alla noia. vi propongo la Ursula (PS: anche in versioni multilingua sul sito EC). Estratto minuto 4'50'' - 5'26'' conferenza stampa del 28 ottobre

 

Cosa si fa nel resto d'Europa?

ECDC pubblica un database delle misure prese in Europa, misure che hanno molteplici graduazioni, da implementazioni parziali a totali, da raccomandazioni semplici a divieti, a limiti quantitativi (es limite per riunioni di persone).

Breve guida. una misura può essere obbligatoria (mandatory) o raccomandata, Partial o totale. Stayhome (gli arresti domiciliari che abbiamo sperimentato in primavera) può essere un ordine Order o una raccomandazione (Rec) e così via.

Per un panorama completo potete scaricare il file con il collegamento al dataset di ECDC. Per una panoramica spot con i dati disponibili oggi, ho riarrangiato il DB delle misure  in vigore in Europa (le traduzioni ve le fate da soli)

MeasureShort Last activation MeasureLong
Austria
ClosPubAnyPartial 14/04/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatory 14/09/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAll 21/09/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
TeleworkingClosures 10/03/2020  Teleworking recommendation
Belgium
ClosHigh 13/03/2020  Closure of educational institutions: higher education.
ClosPubAnyPartial 04/05/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatory 04/05/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAll 10/03/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
TeleworkingClosures 19/10/2020  Teleworking recommendation
Bulgaria
ClosHighPartial 01/06/2020  Closure of educational institutions: higher education – partially relaxed measure
ClosPrim 13/03/2020  Closure of educational institutions: primary schools.
ClosPubAnyPartial 18/05/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
ClosSec 13/03/2020  Closure of educational institutions: secondary schools.
MasksMandatoryPartial 15/06/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure
StayHomeRiskG 17/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
TeleworkingClosures 13/03/2020  Teleworking recommendation
Croatia 
ClosHigh 16/03/2020  Closure of educational institutions: higher education.
ClosSec 16/03/2020  Closure of educational institutions: secondary schools.
MasksMandatoryPartial 25/06/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure
MassGatherAll 19/03/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
StayHomeRiskG 03/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
Cyprus
MasksMandatory 04/05/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAll 10/03/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
Czechia
ClosHigh 14/10/2020  Closure of educational institutions: higher education.
ClosPrim 14/10/2020  Closure of educational institutions: primary schools.
ClosPubAnyPartial 22/10/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
ClosSec 14/10/2020  Closure of educational institutions: secondary schools.
MasksMandatory 25/07/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAll 04/03/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
StayHomeOrder 22/10/2020  Stay-at-home orders for the general population (these are enforced and also referred to as ‘lockdown’)
TeleworkingClosures 22/10/2020  Teleworking recommendation
Denmark
ClosPubAnyPartial 21/04/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatory 22/08/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAllPartial 15/06/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
StayHomeRiskG 14/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
TeleworkingClosuresPartial 15/06/2020  Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure
Estonia
MasksVoluntaryPartial 12/10/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on voluntary basis (general recommendation not enforced) – partially relaxed measure
MassGatherAll 15/07/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
TeleworkingClosuresPartial 16/03/2020  Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure
Finland
ClosPubAnyPartial 01/06/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksVoluntary 18/09/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on voluntary basis (general recommendation not enforced)
MassGather50Partial 15/10/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 50 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
MassGatherAllPartial 01/07/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
StayHomeRiskGPartial 23/06/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.) – partially relaxed measure
TeleworkingClosuresPartial 13/08/2020  Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure
France
MasksMandatory 18/05/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAll 19/10/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
TeleworkingClosuresPartial 11/05/2020  Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure
Germany  
ClosPubAnyPartial 05/05/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatoryPartial 27/04/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure
MassGather50Partial 29/09/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 50 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
MassGatherAllPartial 11/05/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
Greece
ClosHighPartial 25/05/2020  Closure of educational institutions: higher education – partially relaxed measure
ClosPubAnyPartial 04/05/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatory 28/04/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAll 09/08/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
StayHomeRiskG 11/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
TeleworkingClosures 19/03/2020  Teleworking recommendation
Hungary
ClosPubAny 21/09/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers, etc).
MasksMandatory 04/05/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAllPartial 21/09/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
Iceland
ClosPubAnyPartial 31/08/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksVoluntaryPartial 31/07/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on voluntary basis (general recommendation not enforced) – partially relaxed measure
MassGatherAllPartial 25/05/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
StayHomeRiskG 16/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
Ireland
ClosHigh 12/03/2020  Closure of educational institutions: higher education.
ClosPubAnyPartial 06/10/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatory 29/06/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAll 12/03/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
StayHomeOrder 21/10/2020  Stay-at-home orders for the general population (these are enforced and also referred to as ‘lockdown’)
StayHomeRiskG 12/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
TeleworkingClosuresPartial 08/06/2020  Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure
Italy
ClosPubAnyPartial 10/03/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatory 16/08/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAllPartial 12/06/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
StayHomeGen 26/10/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for the general population (which are voluntary or not enforced)
StayHomeRiskG 04/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
TeleworkingClosures 12/03/2020  Teleworking recommendation
Latvia
ClosPubAnyPartial 11/07/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatory 07/10/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAll 01/08/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
TeleworkingClosures 17/03/2020  Teleworking recommendation
Liechtenstein
MasksMandatoryPartial 06/07/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure
MassGatherAll 19/10/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
StayHomeRiskG 16/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
Lithuania
ClosPubAnyPartial 16/03/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatoryPartial 01/08/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure
TeleworkingClosuresPartial 16/06/2020  Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure
Luxembourg    
ClosPubAnyPartial 16/03/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatoryPartial 20/04/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure
MassGather50Partial 11/05/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 50 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
MassGatherAllPartial 16/03/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
StayHomeRiskG 12/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
TeleworkingClosures 13/03/2020  Teleworking recommendation
Malta
ClosDaycare 13/03/2020  Closure of educational institutions: daycare or nursery.
ClosPubAnyPartial 22/05/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatory 22/05/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAll 13/03/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
StayHomeRiskG 28/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
TeleworkingClosures 08/05/2020  Teleworking recommendation
Netherlands
ClosPubAnyPartial 12/03/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatory 01/06/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGather50Partial 29/09/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 50 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
MassGatherAllPartial 01/07/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
TeleworkingClosures 12/03/2020  Teleworking recommendation
Norway
ClosPubAnyPartial 12/03/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatoryPartial 14/08/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure
MassGatherAllPartial 15/06/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
TeleworkingClosures 10/03/2020  Teleworking recommendation
Poland
ClosPubAny 17/10/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers, etc).
MasksMandatoryPartial 30/05/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure
StayHomeRiskG 08/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
TeleworkingClosures 08/03/2020  Teleworking recommendation
Portugal
ClosPubAnyPartial 18/03/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatory 04/05/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAll 15/03/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
StayHomeRiskG 18/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
TeleworkingClosuresPartial 01/06/2020  Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure
Romania
ClosHighPartial 31/08/2020  Closure of educational institutions: higher education – partially relaxed measure
ClosPubAnyPartial 14/05/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatoryPartial 01/08/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law) – partially relaxed measure
MassGatherAllPartial 31/05/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included) – partially relaxed measure
TeleworkingClosuresPartial 15/05/2020  Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure
Slovakia
ClosHighPartial 10/06/2020  Closure of educational institutions: higher education – partially relaxed measure
ClosPubAny 01/10/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers, etc).
ClosSec 12/10/2020  Closure of educational institutions: secondary schools.
MasksMandatory 01/07/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAll 01/09/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
Slovenia
ClosPubAnyPartial 29/04/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatory 25/06/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
TeleworkingClosures 04/03/2020  Teleworking recommendation
Spain
ClosPubAnyPartial 04/05/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatory 04/05/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
StayHomeRiskG 12/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
TeleworkingClosuresPartial 13/04/2020  Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure
Sweden
ClosPubAny 01/07/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers, etc).
MassGatherAll 12/03/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
StayHomeGen 10/03/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for the general population (which are voluntary or not enforced)
StayHomeRiskG 01/04/2020  Stay-at-home recommendations for risk groups or vulnerable populations (such as the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, physically disabled people, etc.)
TeleworkingClosures 16/03/2020  Teleworking recommendation
United Kingdom
ClosPubAnyPartial 31/03/2020  Closure of public spaces of any kind (including restaurants, entertainment venues, non-essential shops, partial or full closure of public transport, gyms and sport centers etc) – partially relaxed measure
MasksMandatory 27/07/2020  Protective mask use in all public spaces on mandatory basis (enforced by law)
MassGatherAll 24/03/2020  Interventions are in place to limit mass/public gatherings (any interventions on mass gatherings up to 1000 participants included)
TeleworkingClosuresPartial 10/05/2020  Teleworking recommendation or workplace closures – partially relaxed measure